Political Miscalculations

 Political Miscalculations

This morning I joined a walkabout through my hometown with a fairly large group of teachers and supporters of education. Some might ask, “What is a conservative doing at a walk in support of teachers?”  On the fifth of October I joined thousands of teachers and supporters at the Alberta Legislature.  Why was this United Conservative Party member present at a rally such as this one in support of the 50,000+ teachers in this province?  It is because everyone involved is making political miscalculations which hurt education in this province.  It is teachers, students, families, communities, and businesses who pay the price.

The two sides in the current teacher strike remain at an impasse.  This, of course, has been entirely predictable for some time.  Both the Government of Alberta and the Alberta Teachers’ Association have long nurtured an acrimonious relationship with each other (See: Stuck in the Middle).  Both feel there is something to be gained by resisting the temptation to get along.  In doing so both sides have made and are making political miscalculations.

We are witnessing a power struggle between Big Labour and Big Government.  The ATA is betting on public support for teachers to compel the government to improve its salary offer and to commit to smaller class sizes.  The government is counting on a general disdain for labour unions and its promises to keep a lid on government spending to justify a hard-line stance.  Both sides are engaging in a power struggle when that is not, in reality, job of either side.  The job, correctly understood, is to provide an education to the Kindergarten to Grade 12 students in the province and to determine how to make that happen … together.

Will anyone dare to soften their position and say, “Come, let us reason together!”  

In a power struggle the goal is simple … win the game.  This is a battle where winning requires that the other side loses.  The government will not allow that to happen.  The government has the ultimate power.  The government can end the battle with back to work legislation.  In thinking that it can win a battle, and in convincing teachers across the province to believe they can win, the ATA has made a strategic miscalculation.  In a power struggle, the teachers lose.

ATA Miscalculations

The key strategy that the ATA uses is to influence public opinion.  To that end the union makes use of a substantial advertising budget.  People generally like teachers.  Teachers are nice people who like kids and who try to improve their lot in life.  The ATA seeks to borrow the positive feelings people have for teachers and turn these feelings into goodwill for the union.  They advertise heavily in order to accomplish this.  It is unclear if this expensive strategy is helpful.

The ATA also positions itself as the voice for every aspect of education.  In doing so it frequently pits itself against the Government of Alberta and the Ministry of Education which is the actual authority for educational policy and legislation.  The result is an educational landscape where, rather than a structure with two key partners with clearly defined roles, we have adversaries who each question the legitimacy of the voice of the other.  Claiming for its own a role that the government will not allow it to assume is a catastrophic miscalculation.  It is a political miscalculation, because the union has, in error, chosen to use a political strategy and view itself as a political organization.

Neither side is interested in a Win-Win situation.  Neither side is interested in finding a solution to which both sides say, “Yes.”

UCP Government Miscalculations

The UCP Government has also miscalculated this badly.  It will surely win the battle, but this miscalculation may be pivotal as it eventually loses the war in the next general election.  The government has claimed that the ATA leadership is out of touch with its membership.  While there may be some truth to this, the rallies on October 5 where tens of thousands of teachers and supporters gathered in various Alberta cities and most notably on the grounds of Legislature, indicate that teachers are seeing and feeling injustice, and the government cannot claim that it has insights into the reasons for the discontent.  

Furthermore, according to the Angus Reid Institute, a majority of Albertans support the teachers in this dispute.  58% of respondents say they side with the teachers compared to 21% who say they are siding with the government.  If the government is counting on union-busting as a means of winning popular support, it appears they have made a miscalculation.

While on the surface opposition to a big union seems like a very conservative way of managing the affairs of government, the approach in this case misses the mark.  Conservative business people argue that if you treat your employees fairly, treat them with dignity, and respect their expertise, a union is unnecessary.  The working conditions teachers experience in this province in 2025 and a pattern of wages that falls behind inflation prove that unions are, in fact, necessary.  Conservatives are not opposed to employment justice;  they are opposed to the militancy demanded by collective bargaining as a necessary means to acquire employment justice.  It appears that what the government has done is prove the necessity of militant collective bargaining.  Another miscalculation.

Conservatives believe in small government.  They don’t believe in building pipelines.  Rather, they believe that the key to prosperity is to create an hospitable environment for business to invest and to  flourish.  If you build a business-friendly province, Oil companies will invest in pipelines.  If we desire to attract talent and capital to this province we must offer a quality of life which makes Alberta among the best places in the world to invest and to live.  It is the responsibility of the government, and especially a conservative government, to build a system of roads, hospitals, policing, and schools which make this the best place to invest and to work.  It should not be teachers and nurses who are pushing for this sort of environment.  It ought to be the UCP government itself which leads the way.  

Along with plumbers, machinists, carpenters, engineers, electricians, welders, mechanics, programmers, and technicians that we need and invite with a message that “Alberta is Calling,” we need teachers.  We need a thousand or more new teachers each year simply to account for the increase in student population.  We need thousands more to reduce class sizes.  We need and want the best teachers.  We want to attract teachers from all over the world to bring powerful learning to Alberta.  It is not the responsibility of teachers to strategize about attracting the best and brightest teachers; it is the government.  The plan to invite investment and talent to Alberta is laden with miscalculation.

The argument has been made in recent days that there should be enough teachers in the province to meet proposed class size goals already.  The suggestion is that there is a great deal of inefficiency in the system.  Why does the government not know where the inefficiencies are?  How is the responsibility of teachers to identify and repair inefficiencies?  Who is responsible for investigating the efficiency with which public dollars are spent?  Why has the government waited until a teacher strike to speculate that perhaps school divisions are managing public dollars in questionable ways?  Why are funds, intended for the employment of classroom teachers, not targeted specifically to classrooms?  It is the government which is and was responsible for solving these funding questions prior to engaging in this negotiation.  This is not a miscalculation.  It is an abject failure to make a calculation.

What Now?

It appears unlikely that either the government or the ATA are likely to revise their (mis)calculations.  Both are likely to double down on the positions that they have strenuously and adamantly expressed throughout these negotiations.  Their disdain for one-another will continue to be justified in all of the rhetoric.  And power will prevail over reason.  Teachers will be sent back to work and the government will have experienced a substantial loss in popular support. 

What I have attempted to do here is provide a critique of both sides in the current teacher labour dispute.  I have probably erred by not acknowledging anything positive.  Many people will say I am wrong about one side or the other.  Few will say I am wrong about both.  That’s the nature of discourse these days.

We live in a world where many people believe they are part of a majority because they surround themselves with like-minded people.  We create rooms full of angry people complaining in unison and we allow ourselves to believe that the room is somehow representative of the people outside of that room.  This is true with respect to both rooms filled with disgruntled teachers and rooms filled with conservatives who are angry at Ottawa.  We miscalculate what people outside of the room think and believe.  Usually, the people outside of the room are not angry and do not wish to become angry.

There is a lot of anger associated with strikes, negotiations, and polarizing politics.  Perhaps our poor calculations and anger are related.  Is it possible for politicians and union leaders to leave the security of our rooms filled with like-minded angry people and drink coffee with people who are not in the middle of the battle?  Is it possible to pull out our calculators and figure out how to make Alberta a great place to live and invest? … how to make schools better places for children and students? … how to build a world where teachers and governments work side-by-side respecting all stakeholders? … how to drop the animosity? … how to stop insisting that it is only our adversary who makes miscalculations?